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Was the final result of the Japanese Grand Prix predictable? Ultimately, yes, but how this year’s Formula 1 race at Suzuka unravelled wasn’t entirely typical thanks to the variance in strategies across the field.
With a little over six months between last year’s race in Japan and this year’s round, it was a prime opportunity to determine the progress made from the end of 2023. Among the other stories, there was also a successful homecoming, ever-escalating repair bills in one corner of the field, and discussions over a previous favourite returning to the grid.
Here are the key things that we learned from this year’s Japanese GP weekend.
1. Verstappen barely broke a sweat as Red Bull reclaimed form
Three wins from four and this time Verstappen made it look easy
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images
Although tyre wear was high, both drivers managed their races well. Perez admitted that he’d perhaps over-consumed tyre life in the opening pair of stints on the yellow-walled tyre, but this did not prove too detrimental to his fortunes over the course of the race. After dropping the ball in Australia as Red Bull struggled to contend with the higher level of graining prevalent throughout, an out-and-out degradation race continues to be the team’s bread and butter.
“We had, not an argument, but he said, ‘are you sure you want to do this?’ I was pretty sure and it turned out to be wrong!” Verstappen revealed after the race. “But he was right.”
2. There’s merit to strategic variance as tactical battle ensues
Leclerc made a one-stop plan work to climb the order
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images
High levels of tyre degradation at the technical Suzuka course rarely yields a one-stop race, especially as a starting track temperature of 40C offered further early thermal degradation to contend with. Yet, all three tyre compounds were legitimate options in certain situations; eight drivers elected to start on the softs to collect early track position, although many of them switched compounds during the red flag to something more durable.
3. Ferrari’s 23-second progress towards Red Bull in six months
Progress for Ferrari, but a large gap remains to Red Bull
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images
That Leclerc could execute a one-stop strategy might have seemed out of reach last season, when tyre management issues plagued the red cars on a weekly basis. The work being carried out at Maranello to beat Red Bull is nowhere near done on that front, but it has at least converged towards its rival outfit.
4. Mercedes’ difficult weekend adds long-awaited W15 insight
Hamilton cut a frustrated figure after the Japanese GP
Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images
Mercedes toyed with its suspension set-up over the weekend to try to provoke the car into benefitting from that greater level of downforce, and may need to investigate the ride of the W15 further to elicit further breakthroughs.
5. Suzuka displayed the gulf between Aston Martin’s driving duo
Stroll was completely outclassed by Alonso in Japan
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images
“I think it was my best weekend – or inside the top five ever, for me. I think P5 in qualifying, that lap, and P6 in the race is completely out of position.”
Then there was his defence from Piastri, where he willingly gave up DRS in the main straight to counter it with energy deployment having charged up his battery over the rest of the lap. When Russell came to play behind them, Alonso fed Piastri to the sharks and dropped the pair of them to cement his position in the race.
6. Williams’ repair bills are continuing to escalate
‘Chassis number three, please’ – Albon has damaged two chassis in as many events for Williams
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
7. Tsunoda is continuing to show up Ricciardo
Tsunoda is the man of the moment for RB, and that is terrible news for Ricciardo
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images
Two weeks ago, Red Bull principal Christian Horner brushed away a question about Tsunoda and instead used the opportunity to wax lyrical about Sainz. Praise of the Spaniard was very much earned, but Red Bull should not simply ignore the progress that Tsunoda has made this season. And, with each point that Tsunoda scores, an extra nail is being driven into Ricciardo’s Red Bull-branded coffin as the Australian drifts further away from a potential call-up to the senior team.
8. McLaren reshuffles technical pack again as Sanchez departs
The new McLaren leadership introduced last year is already being changed up
Photo by: McLaren
In its bid to rejoin the front of the F1 pack on a regular basis after over a decade away, McLaren made a series of hires over 2023 to bolster its technical team. Rob Marshall was brought to Woking from Red Bull, while ex-Ferrari man David Sanchez was hired to head up the performance and concept department of McLaren’s three-pronged engineering team. The Frenchman’s signing was tied up in February last year, offering ample opportunity for him to prune his petunias on a lengthy gardening leave.
Finally assuming his new post at the start of 2024, Sanchez has left the team after just three months. Team principal Andrea Stella had assumed his role in the interim over last season, and will do so again until a suitable replacement can be found.
It appears that, in the 11 months between hiring and joining, Sanchez’s job specification drifted away significantly from what it had started out as during McLaren’s continued evolution. “It became apparent that the role, responsibilities, and ambitions associated with David’s position did not align with our original expectations when he agreed to join us in February 2023,” Stella revealed in a McLaren release.
“Recognising this misalignment, both David and I agreed that it would be best to part ways now, so to enable him to pursue other opportunities that will better leverage the full scale and breadth of his remarkable skillset.”
9. Is Sebastian Vettel toying with the idea of a comeback?
Is Vettel buzzing to get back into the F1 fold?
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images
Four-time F1 champion Sebastian Vettel has been doing the rounds on UK news outlets in recent weeks, punctuated by a test in Porsche’s 963 LMDh machinery, and it seems to suggest that the German might be on the comeback trail in some form of racing. After hanging up his helmet at the end of 2022 after two years with Aston Martin, Vettel has been quietly pursuing his environmental interests – making a cameo at last year’s Japanese GP to build bee hives with the drivers.
Aside from that, his only motorsport-based exploits have been in promoting his Race Without Trace campaign, lobbying for more sustainable and carbon neutral fuels to break into mainstream racing categories. Speaking to RTL last month, Vettel stated that “I still have a few plans, hopefully in the context of Formula 1 and also this year. It remains to be seen whether that will happen.” That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s hunting around for an F1 seat, especially as he followed that by stating “I didn’t know whether I would reach a point where I would say: I want to go back. At the moment, I haven’t reached that point either.”
10. Returning China round might go with the grain
When F1 last raced in China, Verstappen had only five wins to his name
Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images
It’s been five years since China graced the F1 calendar; its Shanghai circuit is a popular one among the drivers, but since its last appearance in 2019 owing to the impact of COVID-19 it has been resurfaced. Allied to the introduction of the current generation of cars, it’ll be something of an unknown quantity.
Practice will be limited as China will host a sprint weekend, giving the teams little opportunity to sniff out the quirks of the new track surface. Pirelli has opted for the C2-C3-C4 tyres and, if conditions are not particularly warm in Shanghai, graining may well rear its head again after proving a significant point of interest in Australia.
“In the past, we had not severe graining, but we had light graining. So yes, could be a possibility,” said Pirelli chief engineer Simone Berra. “I expect some graining, especially on C3 and C4; for the C2 I expect more resilience compared to the C3 and C4, so we should be covered. Let’s say, in that case, a high wear rate in case of graining.”
This might give Ferrari a chance to double its victory tally in the event that Red Bull is unable to make significant strides relative to its efforts in Melbourne, but more will be revealed when Pirelli assesses the circuit this week.
Can anyone close the gap to Red Bull in China?
Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images
